Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
